Sydney drinking water catchment in 2040, 2060

There is increased investment in catchment management as a key strategy for providing safe drinking water to Greater Sydney. The urban footprint is the same as the baseline scenario, with increasing population living in those areas. Communities are highly engaged and expect catchment health to be valued, protected and effectively managed by government. Under this scenario there would be a decrease in disturbed land, increased reforestation, and improved management of forested areas.

A new high-speed rail link from Sydney to Canberra creates major new population centres in Goulburn and the Southern Highlands that are cool, green and liveable with integrated water management principles. Urban expansion in south-west Sydney slows as cheaper and more liveable homes are available a 30 minute train ride from Sydney. Under this scenario there would be a decrease in disturbed land, increased reforestation, and improved management of forested areas. However, expanding urban areas lead to decreases in grazing areas, and populations must rely on more intensive food productions in urban landscapes.

Renewable energy and carbon forestry become dominant industries in the catchment, and are a key driver for increased catchment enhancement and restoration measures. Examples include forest regeneration, green energy, transmission and storage (pumped hydro, wind and solar farms). This scenario would see expanded and enhanced forested areas, decreases in grazing land, minor increases in disturbed land with installation of renewable energy infrastructure. The urban footprint remains the same as in the baseline scenario.

Increased population growth, higher than in the baseline model, creates dense mega-cities bordering the catchment boundaries in Sydney’s south and west, Wollongong and Nowra. To manage increased pressure on catchment health and water security, increased focus is on both catchment management and alternate water sources including desalination and introducing potable reuse. This scenario imagines a future where there is an increase in the urban footprint and increase in disturbed land due to intensive agriculture needed to meet the demands of the rapidly growing population.

Catchment areas have faced prolonged droughts and fires resulting in poor water quality. Enhanced centralised treatment and potable reuse are key strategies for providing safe drinking water to Greater Sydney.  Population growth rates remain the same but development controls in the catchment are relaxed, and new development is not water sensitive and forested areas are reduced for urban expansion. Grazing and intensive agricultural activity, extractive industry, and recreation in the catchment also increase, with more land transitioning to grazing and disturbed.

Government and community are in a constant state of response to rolling climate emergencies impacting the catchment. The costs of responding are high, and an emergency mitigation is the dominant activity. With continued ecosystem destruction, catchment management becomes a lower priority. Large swathes of forested and grassland areas transition to disturbed land due to climate impacts, and people relocate from small holdings and Western Sydney to Southern Highlands urban centres to escape fires and extreme heat.